Sam Manning

I am a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI). My work focuses on measuring the economic and labor market impacts of frontier AI systems and designing policy options to help ensure that advanced AI can foster broadly shared economic prosperity.

Before joining GovAI I did similar research with OpenAI for two years. Prior to that I was the research manager on OpenResearch's basic income study, worked on pandemic preparedness policy at UC San Francisco, consulted on impact evaluations for the Green Climate Fund, and managed an evaluation of a childhood health program in West Bengal, India.

I'm Dad to Nellie (4), Annie (2), and Otis (1).

Selected Writing // Research // Media

Research article

June 2024

GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs

Science, w/ Tyna Eloundou, Pamela Mishkin, and Daniel Rock

Research article

Jan 2025

International AI Safety Report

(lead writer for the labour market risks section), w/ Yoshua Bengio, Soren Mindermann, Daniel Privitera, et al.

Research article

Mar 2023

GPT-4 Technical Report

(worked on economic impact analysis ahead of the release of GPT-4), w/ hundreds of authors

Research article

Feb 2025

Options and Motivations for International AI Benefit Sharing

GovAI Report, w/ Claire Dennis, Stephen Clare, Boxi Wu, Jake Okechukwu Effoduh, Chinasa T. Okolo, Lennart Heim, and Katya Klinova

blog post

jun 2024

Predicting AI’s Impact on Work

GovAI Blog

podcast interview

aug 2024

Predicting AI’s Impact on Work

ODSC’s x AI podcast

podcast interview

dec 2024

Sam Manning on Benefits Sharing in the Context of AI

Lawfare Daily

blog post

aug 2024

Predistribution over Redistribution: Beyond the Windfall Clause

Collective Intelligence Project Blog, w/ Saffron Huang

talk

sep 2024

How will AI Affect existing jobs?

World Bank & Georgetown University’s AI in Action Event

research article

mar 2025

AI-Powered Lawyering: AI Reasoning Models, Retrieval Augmented Generation, and the Future of Legal Practice

Minnesota Legal Studies Research Paper, w/ Daniel Schwarcz, Patrick Barry, David R. Cleveland, J.J. Prescott, and Beverly Rich

research article

mar 2022

A Research Agenda for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Code Generation Models

OpenAI working paper, w/ Pamela Mishkin, Gillian Hadfield, Tyna Eloundou, and Emily Eisner

blog post

mar 2022

Economic Impacts Research at OpenAI

w/ Pamela Mishkin and Tyna Eloundou, OpenAI Blog

research article

dec 2024

Measuring AI Agent Autonomy: Towards a Scalable Approach with Code Inspection

NeurIPS Socially Responsible Language Modelling Research Workshop, w/ Peter Cihon, Merlin Stein, Gagan Bansal, and Kevin Xu

Government Information Request Submission

may 2024

Comment on the National Institute for Standards and Technology’s Draft Profile on Generative AI

w/ Malcolm Murray, Jonas Schuett, Alan Chan, Leonie Koessler, and Markus Anderljung

research article

apr 2022

The Impact of Cleft Lip/Palate and Surgical Intervention on Adolescent Life Outcomes

Annals of Global Health, w/ Bruce Wydick, Mustafa Zahid, Jeremiah Maller, Kira Evsanaa, Susann Skjoldhorne, Matthew Bloom, Abhishek Das, and Guarav Deshpande